Zimmermann Telegram Decipherment: The Number Message That Changed the Course of War

Symbols and Traces, My Case Investigation Record 56

Cimmerman Telegraph Decoded
A number text

In January 1917, German Foreign Minister Artur Cimmerman sent to Mexico proposed a military alliance against the United States. Royal Naval Intelligence Unit 40 intercepted it and read it.

Figure 1. Original Timmerman telegram written in numeric code — Image:

From the conclusion of this record to
The Chimmerman telegram case is a success with a set of password analysis, source protection, and political verification. The plain text was read as a codebook, and copies of the Mexican route and the recognition of Cheemerman destroyed the fabrication theory.

Prologue: Recorded Night

After the night deepens, the data was spread on the desk. The first thing that caught my eye was not the answer, but the imbalance. Some scenes were as clear as photographs and some time zones were empty as a whole. People try to capture one clear scene and explain the whole thing, but I marked the empty section first. Mysteries arise because there are many clues, but they also arise because the distance between clues is too far.

Unlocking the password was not enough. Britain had to show its message to the United States, hiding that it was eavesdropping on Germany's diplomatic communications. A separate copy delivered to Mexico City was obtained to disguise the source, and the dispute ended when Chimerman himself admitted the authenticity.

I deliberately read the famous hypothesis at the end. First of all, when we encounter the conclusion, it seems that all objects and symbols exist for that conclusion. Therefore, the timetable, place, object, and original text were organized first, and the witness and interpretation were placed in different compartments. The novel-like atmosphere was drawn from the cold texture of the actual record, not from a made-up secret.

Figure 2. The full text of the restored decoding in English — Image:

Case File: What I Could Believe

20313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950515253545556

Number	Confirmed Record	Current Reliability
1	The Cimmerman telegram is a message sent by the German Foreign Minister to the diplomatic mission in Mexico in January 1917. The	High
2	telegram suggested an alliance with Mexico in the event of a war between the United States and Germany.	High
3	Office 40 of the Royal Naval Intelligence Agency decrypted the contents using German diplomatic codes.	High
4	The UK utilized the copy route delivered to Mexico to protect its eavesdropping capabilities.	Medium
5	The disclosure of telegrams and the recognition of Chemerman had a great influence on US public opinion and participation in the war.	Medium

The plain text and historical impact of the telegram have been confirmed, and the remaining issue is the evaluation of detailed information operations.

Caution trap
'Unexplained' is not the same as 'supernatural', 'a huge conspiracy', and 'only this hypothesis is possible'. I didn't count the blanks as evidence.

Figure 3. Royal Naval Intelligence Unit 40 — Image:

Scene Reconstruction: Finally, the place of the certain point

was changed to the actual movement, not the stage in your head. We divided the starting point, the last check point, and the location where the item was found and calculated the minimum time required in between. When the dramatic description of later generations was removed, small and specific elements such as sound and lighting, doors and roads, paper and ink, and the spacing of symbols came forward.

The person's mind was not fixed and the action was written first. The same behavior can be caused by fear, planning, error, and fatigue. If it is a code, the same symbol can be a sound, a word, a separator, and a meaningless sign. After writing down all possible roles, he erased the roles that conflict with other records one by one.

Clue 1. The Cimmerman telegram is a message sent by the German Foreign Minister to the mission in Mexico in January 1917.

I split this sentence into three pieces first. It indicated who first checked, how close the confirmation was to the incident, and where the later interpretation was attached. Old events and codes turn into clearer stories than the original while being repeatedly cited. But clarity is not the same thing as accuracy. In my notes, I separated the direct record, the traces left by the object, and the reasoning of later generations into different colors.

Then, this clue was confronted with the record, "Telegraph suggested an alliance with Mexico in case of war between the United States and Germany." It is not a good hypothesis if one hypothesis explains only the first sentence and avoids the second sentence. In particular, if you fail to pass the question, "Which was the more difficult problem, decryption or information disclosure?" the attractive explanation also lowered the score. I've seen clues that make the conclusion uncomfortable longer than clues that make the conclusion cool.

If you look at the clues this way, the case seems a little less dramatic. Instead, there is a boundary between how far it is clear and where it is imagined. That boundary is necessary to correct reasoning when new data are released. The most dangerous moment in the unwritten record is not when you make a false hypothesis, but when you turn the hypothesis into a sentence of fact.

Clue 2. Telegraph suggested an alliance with Mexico in the event of a war between the United States and Germany.

I split this sentence into three pieces first. It indicated who first checked, how close the confirmation was to the incident, and where the later interpretation was attached. Old events and codes turn into clearer stories than the original while being repeatedly cited. But clarity is not the same thing as accuracy. In my notes, I separated the direct record, the traces left by the object, and the reasoning of later generations into different colors.

This clue was then confronted with the record that "Room 40 of the Royal Naval Intelligence Agency decrypted the contents using German diplomatic codes." It is not a good hypothesis if one hypothesis explains only the first sentence and avoids the second sentence. In particular, if you fail to pass the question, "How did you check proper nouns and policy sentences when there were only parts of the codebook?" attractive explanations also lowered the score. I've seen clues that make the conclusion uncomfortable longer than clues that make the conclusion cool.

If you look at the clues this way, the case seems a little less dramatic. Instead, there is a boundary between how far it is clear and where it is imagined. That boundary is necessary to correct reasoning when new data are released. The most dangerous moment in the unwritten record is not when you make a false hypothesis, but when you turn the hypothesis into a sentence of fact.

Figure 4. German Diplomatic Codebook and Contrast Table — Image:

Clue 3. Royal Naval Intelligence Unit 40 decrypted the contents using German diplomatic codes.

I split this sentence into three pieces first. It indicated who first checked, how close the confirmation was to the incident, and where the later interpretation was attached. Old events and codes turn into clearer stories than the original while being repeatedly cited. But clarity is not the same thing as accuracy. In my notes, I separated the direct record, the traces left by the object, and the reasoning of later generations into different colors.

This clue was then confronted with the record that "Britain used the path of copies delivered to Mexico to protect its eavesdropping capabilities." It is not a good hypothesis if one hypothesis explains only the first sentence and avoids the second sentence. In particular, if it fails to pass the question, "What independent evidence was needed to deny the authenticity of the telegram?" attractive explanations also lowered the score. I've seen clues that make the conclusion uncomfortable longer than clues that make the conclusion cool.

If you look at the clues this way, the case seems a little less dramatic. Instead, there is a boundary between how far it is clear and where it is imagined. That boundary is necessary to correct reasoning when new data are released. The most dangerous moment in the unwritten record is not when you make a false hypothesis, but when you turn the hypothesis into a sentence of fact.

Clue 4. The UK utilized the copy route delivered to Mexico to protect its eavesdropping capabilities.

I split this sentence into three pieces first. It indicated who first checked, how close the confirmation was to the incident, and where the later interpretation was attached. Old events and codes turn into clearer stories than the original while being repeatedly cited. But clarity is not the same thing as accuracy. In my notes, I separated the direct record, the traces left by the object, and the reasoning of later generations into different colors.

This clue was then confronted with the record, "The disclosure of telegrams and the recognition of Cheemerman had a great influence on American public opinion and participation in the war." It is not a good hypothesis if one hypothesis explains only the first sentence and avoids the second sentence. In particular, if you fail to pass the question, "Which was the more difficult problem, decryption or information disclosure?" the attractive explanation also lowered the score. I've seen clues that make the conclusion uncomfortable longer than clues that make the conclusion cool.

If you look at the clues this way, the case seems a little less dramatic. Instead, there is a boundary between how far it is clear and where it is imagined. That boundary is necessary to correct reasoning when new data are released. The most dangerous moment in the unwritten record is not when you make a false hypothesis, but when you turn the hypothesis into a sentence of fact.

Clue 5. The disclosure of telegrams and the recognition of Chemerman had a great influence on US public opinion and participation in the war.

I split this sentence into three pieces first. It indicated who first checked, how close the confirmation was to the incident, and where the later interpretation was attached. Old events and codes turn into clearer stories than the original while being repeatedly cited. But clarity is not the same thing as accuracy. In my notes, I separated the direct record, the traces left by the object, and the reasoning of later generations into different colors.

This clue was then matched with the record, "The German Foreign Minister's message to the diplomatic mission in Mexico in January 1917. It is not a good hypothesis if one hypothesis explains only the first sentence and avoids the second sentence. In particular, if you fail to pass the question, "How did you check proper nouns and policy sentences when there were only parts of the codebook?" attractive explanations also lowered the score. I've seen clues that make the conclusion uncomfortable longer than clues that make the conclusion cool.

If you look at the clues this way, the case seems a little less dramatic. Instead, there is a boundary between how far it is clear and where it is imagined. That boundary is necessary to correct reasoning when new data are released. The most dangerous moment in the unwritten record is not when you make a false hypothesis, but when you turn the hypothesis into a sentence of fact.

Figure 5. Atlantic Submarine Cable Route — Image:

Put three hypotheses on the same scale The

hypothesis was not evaluated as a cool sentence. The number of clues to be explained, the number of newly requested assumptions, and the degree to which they endure the opposite evidence were written, respectively. Even if one clue is fully explained, it is not a good hypothesis if the other records have to be discarded.

Hypothesis A. Read numerical codes using the German diplomatic codebook and the full text of iteration you have already secured.

This explanation has the advantage of accepting as a relatively small assumption, "The Chimmerman telegram is a message sent by the German Foreign Minister to the mission in Mexico in January 1917. I assumed that this hypothesis was correct and walked time and space all over again. Each time people, objects, and symbols moved to the next location, they wrote down the actions and times they needed. There must have been a hidden assumption at the point where the sentence was cut off.

The biggest weakness is that it does not fully explain that "Room 40 of the Royal Naval Intelligence Agency decrypted the contents using German diplomatic codes." If you keep adding accomplices, coincidences, and lost things to keep the hypothesis alive, you can explain anything. However, such an explanation does not predict new clues. I only scored when two independent records pointed in the same direction, and I scored every time I called in a new exception.

117100118

So, whether or not to adopt this hypothesis as a conclusion was judged not by atmosphere but by cost. The number of clues to be explained, the number of newly requested households, and the degree to which they endure evidence against them are listed in the same table. Novel scenes were used to show the texture of facts, but not as evidence to fill in the blanks.

119101120

Hypothesis B. Fill in the blanks by comparing different cryptographic and transmission paths of the same message.

121102122

This explanation has the advantage of accepting "the telegram proposed an alliance with Mexico in the event of a war between the United States and Germany" as a relatively small assumption. I assumed that this hypothesis was correct and walked time and space all over again. Each time people, objects, and symbols moved to the next location, they wrote down the actions and times they needed. There must have been a hidden assumption at the point where the sentence was cut off.

123103124

The biggest weakness is that it does not fully explain "the UK has utilized the path of copies delivered to Mexico to protect its eavesdropping capabilities." If you keep adding accomplices, coincidences, and lost things to keep the hypothesis alive, you can explain anything. However, such an explanation does not predict new clues. I only scored when two independent records pointed in the same direction, and I scored every time I called in a new exception.

125104126

So, whether or not to adopt this hypothesis as a conclusion was judged not by atmosphere but by cost. The number of clues to be explained, the number of newly requested households, and the degree to which they endure evidence against them are listed in the same table. Novel scenes were used to show the texture of facts, but not as evidence to fill in the blanks.

127105128

Hypothesis C. To hide its ability to decipher, we construct the source of a separate copy as legitimate evidence.

129106130

This explanation is "Room 40 of the Royal Naval Intelligence Agency decrypted the contents using German diplomatic codes.It has the advantage of accepting " as a relatively small assumption. I assumed that this hypothesis was correct and walked time and space all over again. Each time people, objects, and symbols moved to the next location, they wrote down the actions and times they needed. There must have been a hidden assumption at the point where the sentence was cut off.

131107132

The biggest weakness is that it does not fully explain "the disclosure of telegrams and the recognition of Cheemerman had a great influence on US public opinion and participation in the war." If you keep adding accomplices, coincidences, and lost things to keep the hypothesis alive, you can explain anything. However, such an explanation does not predict new clues. I only scored when two independent records pointed in the same direction, and I scored every time I called in a new exception.

133108134

So, whether or not to adopt this hypothesis as a conclusion was judged not by atmosphere but by cost. The number of clues to be explained, the number of newly requested households, and the degree to which they endure evidence against them are listed in the same table. Novel scenes were used to show the texture of facts, but not as evidence to fill in the blanks.

Figure 6. Map linking Germany, the United States and Mexico — Image:

Conclusions I abandoned

137111138

When I started the investigation, I was also drawn to the most famous explanation. It organized the case into one sentence and gave intention to everything. However, in contrast to the original record, each blank required a new coincidence. I erased the conclusion then and started again. Good reasoning is not about adding anything, but about removing unnecessary assumptions.

139112140

I saw the next thing longer than the moment I turned a number into a letter. Disclosure of the information allowed Germany to change its eavesdropping route. Britain had to keep the secret of its decoded truth and its ability to decipher at the same time.

141113142

In particular, the details repeated on later articles and the Internet were separated from the source. Just because the same sentence appears in multiple places does not mean that there are multiple independent sources. We first checked the possibility that one error was duplicated. After this process, the case became less colorful, but the weight of the remaining clues increased.

Figure 7. Operation to secure a copy of Mexico City — Image:

Anti-evidence: Sentence to destroy my reasoning

145116146

The investigation ends quickly if I gather data that upholds my conclusion. So I put the three most uncomfortable questions next to the conclusion.

147117148

• Which was the more difficult problem, decryption or information disclosure?
150119151
• How did you check proper nouns and policy sentences when there were only some parts of the codebook
152120153
• What independent evidence was needed for the claim to deny the authenticity of the telegram?

155122156

These questions are not decorative. It is a switch that will change its conclusion when new data comes in. The ranking of the hypotheses changes immediately when directly linked information, such as the sighting source, preserved physical evidence, comparative samples from the same author, and independent dating. On the contrary, when the word "likely" increased, the ranking did not change.

Figure 8. Telegraphs published in American newspapers — Image:

Final Reasoning: I Reached

159125160

Judgment
The Chimmerman telegram case is a success with a set of password analysis, source protection, and political verification. The plain text was read as a codebook, and copies of the Mexican route and the recognition of Cheemerman destroyed the fabrication theory.

161126162

This conclusion is not a complete final judgment. The direction calls for the fewest assumptions in the currently disclosed records and explains the most clues at the same time. It is also clear that what comes out changes the conclusion. Reliable original records, verifiable legal science data, and independent evidence directly linking people and objects are needed.

163127164

I do not write that the case is closed. Instead, write down how far you can close it. That boundary is the result of this investigation. The fun of mystery is not that anything is possible. It's about finding out what you can throw away among the possible explanations.

Figure 9. Timmer's record of authenticity — Image:

Additional Survey Record 1. Redraw the timetable

167130168

Re-expanding the data on the desk, this time covering the conclusion. The German foreign minister's message to the mission in Mexico in January 1917 was "Chimmerman's telegram," leaving only one line of place and time. Unconfirmed sections were not filled by imagination but marked with blank squares. The larger the square, the lower the reliability of the hypothesis to pass through the section.

169131170

On top of it, I posted an explanation, "Read numerical codes using the German diplomatic codebook and the full text of iteration that I have already secured." At first, everything seemed to be right, but when I substituted the question, "Which was the more difficult problem, decryption or information disclosure?" a weak connection was revealed. Hypothesis has to endure the question. If you keep making new coincidences to avoid questions, you will create, not reasoning, from that moment on.

171132172

The results obtained in this section are not confirmed criminals or complete plain texts. Instead, it became clear which explanations required fewer assumptions, and what would flip the ranking if found. Even if the case is not completed, the scope of the investigation can be narrowed. This record is intended to leave that very narrow boundary.

173133174

Further investigation record 2. Disappeared link

175134176

Re-expanded the data on the desk and covered the conclusion this time. "The telegram suggested an alliance with Mexico in the event of a war between the United States and Germany," he continued, leaving only one line of place and time. Unconfirmed sections were not filled by imagination but marked with blank squares. The larger the square, the lower the reliability of the hypothesis to pass through the section.

177135178

On top of it, I posted the explanation, "Compare different cryptographic and transmission paths of the same message and fill in the blanks." At first, everything seemed right, but when I substituted the question, "How did you check proper nouns and policy sentences when there were only parts of the codebook," a weak connection was revealed. Hypothesis has to endure the question. If you keep making new coincidences to avoid questions, you will create, not reasoning, from that moment on.

179136180

The results obtained in this section are not confirmed criminals or complete plain texts. Instead, it became clear which explanations required fewer assumptions, and what would flip the ranking if found. Even if the case is not completed, the scope of the investigation can be narrowed. This record is intended to leave that very narrow boundary.

181137182

Further investigation record 3. The path of movement of objects

183138184

Re-expanded the data on the desk and covered the conclusion this time. Office 40 of Royal Naval Intelligence used German diplomatic codes to decipher the contents."The place and the time were lined up, leaving only one behind. Unconfirmed sections were not filled by imagination but marked with blank squares. The larger the square, the lower the reliability of the hypothesis to pass through the section.

185139186

On top of it, I posted an explanation saying, "To hide the ability to decipher, the source of a separate copy is constructed like legal evidence." At first, everything seemed right, but when the question "what independent evidence was needed for the claim to deny the authenticity of the telegram" was substituted, a weak connection was revealed. Hypothesis has to endure the question. If you keep making new coincidences to avoid questions, you will create, not reasoning, from that moment on.

187140188

The results obtained in this section are not confirmed criminals or complete plain texts. Instead, it became clear which explanations required fewer assumptions, and what would flip the ranking if found. Even if the case is not completed, the scope of the investigation can be narrowed. This record is intended to leave that very narrow boundary.

189141190

Further Survey Record 4. Opposite Hypothesis Night

191142192

I re-opened the material on the desk and covered the conclusion this time. The place and time were lined up, leaving only "Britain used the copy route delivered to Mexico to protect its eavesdropping capabilities." Unconfirmed sections were not filled by imagination but marked with blank squares. The larger the square, the lower the reliability of the hypothesis to pass through the section.

193143194

On top of it, I posted an explanation, "Read numerical codes using the German diplomatic codebook and the full text of iteration that I have already secured." At first, everything seemed to be right, but when I substituted the question, "Which was the more difficult problem, decryption or information disclosure?" a weak connection was revealed. Hypothesis has to endure the question. If you keep making new coincidences to avoid questions, you will create, not reasoning, from that moment on.

195144196

The results obtained in this section are not confirmed criminals or complete plain texts. Instead, it became clear which explanations required fewer assumptions, and what would flip the ranking if found. Even if the case is not completed, the scope of the investigation can be narrowed. This record is intended to leave that very narrow boundary.

197145198

Further Survey Record 5. Distance between record and memory

199146200

I re-opened the material on the desk and covered the conclusion this time. "The release of the telegram and the recognition of Chemerman had a great influence on U.S. public opinion and participation in the war."The place and the time were lined up, leaving only one behind. Unconfirmed sections were not filled by imagination but marked with blank squares. The larger the square, the lower the reliability of the hypothesis to pass through the section.

201147202

On top of it, I posted the explanation, "Compare different cryptographic and transmission paths of the same message and fill in the blanks." At first, everything seemed right, but when I substituted the question, "How did you check proper nouns and policy sentences when there were only parts of the codebook," a weak connection was revealed. Hypothesis has to endure the question. If you keep making new coincidences to avoid questions, you will create, not reasoning, from that moment on.

203148204

The results obtained in this section are not confirmed criminals or complete plain texts. Instead, it became clear which explanations required fewer assumptions, and what would flip the ranking if found. Even if the case is not completed, the scope of the investigation can be narrowed. This record is intended to leave that very narrow boundary.

Figure 10. The three-step flow of wiretapping, deciphering, and disclosure — Image:

Records and references

· U.S. National Archives — Zimmermann Telegram

208152209

· U.S. National Archives — decoding activity

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· UK National Archives — Room 40 telegram image

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※ This article is a commentary in the form of personal survey records based on public records and reliable data. I have distinguished between confirmed facts and my reasoning, and I update my judgment when a new official announcement is made. External material images were edited for some color and composition according to the permitted licensing conditions, and each image source was shown in the caption.